by Jacques Fremaux.
The Financial Times of 12 November estimated that the hole that undermines the global economy may be filled by a resolute policy of investment by the strongest Western governments who dig their deficits. The limit of this exercise is that this proactive policy must be backed by business investment and personal loans. But today, consumers are now anxious and prefer to reduce their debts.
In Moneynews, Harvard professor Niall Ferguson is concerned that the public investment policy creates a bubble of debt, "the financial crisis could turn into a crisis of debt."
In Basel, the headquarters of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS °, Jean-Claude Trichet remains vigilant: "The situation is very complex with a large number of parameters to take into consideration." Central bankers are "very very confident that under the current circumstances, there remains a large number of risks. "Mark Deen, Chairman of the Financial Stability Board believes that:" the world's largest banks continue to be too optimistic about the state of their own finances and public authorities should be cautious rather than allow them to exit programs government support. The Times of London quotes the governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King: "It will be a long hard road to find the activity level before the crisis," Furthermore, unemployment continues to rise, a young in five is now unemployed.
For Neil Irwin The Washington Post, the crisis is not imminent in the United States. Improved indices of industrial production is very low probably because of unemployment, which squats and consumer reluctance to buy. The National Association of Manufacturers is concerned still struggling to get credit for their projects and ongoing uncertainty about the value of the stock. With 200,000 jobs lost in October, the U.S. unemployment rate is 11% and no improvement is expected before 2011. The jobs crisis is the very source of the anemia of economic growth and development of government deficits with a serious risk of bank failures and development of protectionism.
November 15 in Singapore, Obama has said "The recession we have just come out clearly taught us that we could not depend on American consumers to lead the economic development of the world "before announcing that the future prosperity depend on a strategy where the U.S. would consume less and export more.
Stephanie Flanders, editor in chief of the service economy of the BBC, wondered if we should not find a new name to describe the type of economy we live in today. Ironically, when we celebrate the end of communism, this year after capitalism has nearly succumbed. It turns out that the market is much more dangerous than imagined and incapable of regulating itself. The improvements of the situation is due to public investment. United States without federal money, the economy is still in recession. Like many critics, Flanders underlines the interest of the book by John Cassidy: "How markets are falling: the logic of economic calamity." Conclusion for the moment we live: "Everyone agrees today, unless the rules of the game are changing in fundamental ways, this is not capitalism that we have today. Especially for the banks! Do you have ideas for a new name? "
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